Saturday, March 21, 2015

Looking forward...

The next couple days will see us get the coldest air on the planet, relative to normals. It will be about 11 degrees C below normal but will moderate as the week progresses.
Thursday will see a small system coming that will be milder than today, giving more precip of the liquid kind than frozen.   Likely another cold shot next weekend.
Longer term, unfortunately the mean temperatures will continue to be colder than normal, likely until at least mid April, interspersed by warm day teases.
The next two weeks according to GFS Ensembles, maps courtesy of WeatherBell.

Week 1

Week 2

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Looking forward...

It's been a nice couple of days and the snow is melting fast.  Yet as I have been twittering (ahem @YFNWG_Ott), winter isn't done.   A cold front is coming through this evening dropping temperature more than 15 degrees from current temperature.   There will be merging of a clipper and a storm coming from the south on Saturday (see pic from A/W)  This will give us 5+ cms of snow Saturday into Sunday.   The GFS and Euro are more enthusiastic about the snow than the Canadian.

Beyond that, after a day or so of mild temps early next week, there will be a period of below normal temps with the obligatory chances for snow.  There is indication on the ensemble models that this will generally be the case into April.

Thursday, March 5, 2015

Quick post from TKD

Waiting for the boys at TKD,  admiring the full moon on a crisp evening.  

After the cold in the next couple of days, we will get a few cms of snow on Saturday and a flurry or two on Sunday.  Tuesday through Thursday will be mild, slightly above normal.

Again, I've joined the twitter-sphere @YFNWG_Ott mainly to provide more up to date weather information and news.  And whatever else catches my fancy.   The blog will remain for longer posts.

Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Longer term

Initial indications are that a mid-March period starting about the 13th will be milder than normal, a thaw so to speak.

However, indications are also that this will not last indefinitely.  Late March into early April is looking cooler than normal.

Snow maps

To illustrate my previous post.


Sunday, March 1, 2015

Pushed south again...

As you may have noticed, we didn't get near the snow today as earlier predicted. The models are underestimating the strength of the arctic highs coming down.  As such, the system is getting shuffled south.  Similarly, the system on Tuesday/Wednesday is getting pushed south and split such that a weaker system is affecting us late Tuesday with a 5-10 cm snow.  The stronger system will be farther south (W. Virginia) giving 12+" dump in that area.

Foiled again.

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Pattern shift ahead

Beginning this week, the mean trough position will shift west.  To date the trough has been centered over eastern North America.  Over the next couple weeks, that will shift to the center of the continent.  That will allow southern branch systems (Colorado lows) to affect the eastern side of the trough, ie Ontario.   Sunday will see the first of these systems affecting Ontario with Ottawa catching the northern edge per current model output.  The bigger deal, again according to the models, is the system on Wednesday, currently predicted to give us 20-30 cms of snow, possibly mixed with ice rain, a messy situation.

Stay tuned.

Tuesday, February 24, 2015