Thursday, January 26, 2012

All together now...

Generally speaking the models have aligned themselves to the mean track and timing from a couple days ago, that is south of Lake Erie and Ontario over central PA and NY states Thursday night into Friday.  Now the argument is about intensity.  Again, the Canadian and the Euro are bosom buddies with a fairly intense storm that puts out a fair amount of precipitation.  However, the Euro has more snow (10-15cms) than rain, a scenario I prefer (hope for).   The GFS and NAM are less intense with less precip.  These are the models I trust more so I am torn...

But the upshot is that it's going to be a bit messy tonight into tomorrow morning.  Again, I think the Canadian is underestimating the low level cold.  Therefore I doubt it's going to get up to +3C tomorrow per the latest EC forecast for Ottawa.

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