Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Scary weather tomorrow

Rainy and windy...

Potential of snow smattering again sunday afternoon..

A little surprise this morning

Huh.   That skiff of snow surprised this morning even me.

Update...nice english on me, eh?

Sunday, October 27, 2013

Thursday, October 24, 2013

The next bit

Saturday:  still not a nice day
Monday:  weak cold front coming through bring showers/flurries..
Tuesday:  cold day, not getting much above zero.  Definitely colder than Env. Can. calling for currently (7 and 1 for high and low temps)
Beyond Tuesday, significant divergance in the modeling.  GFS keeps the jet suppressed so we have a ugly Halloween.  The Euro on the other hand has a relatively nice day next Thursday...so who knows...

Lake Effect snow...

This cold out break is having effect...

Snicker...

MSM is johnny-come-lately to the story..my posts:
http://yfnwg.blogspot.ca/2013/08/tropical-storm-season-update.html
http://yfnwg.blogspot.ca/2013/09/update-to-tropical-storm-season.html
http://yfnwg.blogspot.ca/2013/09/tropical-season-update.html
http://yfnwg.blogspot.ca/2013/09/update-to-tropical-season-update.html

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Quick post

Ottawa A/P got to 0C this morning.   Bancroft had a low of -3, Petawawa -2.

Hard frost the next couple of mornings. 
Saturday afternoon/evening will be gross, ie cold and damp.
Coldest period next week will be Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with a "hard" freeze, ie negative mid single digits.
Looking hopeful for the trick'o'treat-ers with a possible window of milder air before some precip.

Monday, October 21, 2013

Sunday, October 20, 2013

Is it going to freeze this week?

The current Env. Can forecast for Ottawa has no temperatures below 0 C, with morning lows hitting zero Wednesday and Saturday.

On other hand, both the GFS and European model have morning low temperatures below zero Thursday through Saturday mornings, and maybe as soon as Wednesday.

How much faith do I have in Env. Can. temperature forecast?   Cover the plants you don't want to freeze.   Just sayin'.


PS.  TWN has Saturday morning @ -2.   That a bit better.

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Last half of October

Blegch!!

It will not be pretty.. Think a typical Fraser Valley winter, hovering around the freezing mark, daytime highs a few degrees above, night-time lows a few degrees below,  possible rain/sleet and snow showers...

This pictures tells a few words..

Monday, October 14, 2013

Snow cover

Here is the current North American snow cover.

It is my prediction, based on what I see on the models, that 80-90% of the country (Canada that is) will be covered with snow by the end of October.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Saturday, October 12, 2013

The next week or so...

I hope most of you took advantage of today's weather to take a walk somewhere naturey...because this ain't gonna last...  Brilliant forecast, I know.

This weather will last to about tomorrow evening when the first of series of three cold fronts will drag in a trough for next weekend.   The second cold front is Wednesday and the third is Friday/Saturday (note that the Euro model is dragging its feet about the last one in comparison to the GFS, but late isn't denied).

If this comes true then the latter part of next week will be miserable, ie cool and wet. There is also a definite chance for a hard frost early in the week of the 20th.

Friday, October 4, 2013

Be thankful it's only rain

The precipitation we are getting over the next few days is due to a system that is currently giving a blizzard the US midwest.

Like I said, be thankful it's only rain.  It could be worse.

Wednesday, October 2, 2013

Quick post...

Nice until Friday or Saturday when rain will come and somewhat cooler temps.  Rain will last until Monday.    The remainder of next week will again see mild temperatures until a cold front on the weekend will bring that to an end to that.  On the backside of this front there may be the f-word....flurries, according to one model anyway.

Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Over the Misty Mountains cold

 
 

Phew!!!!!

More IPCC report reactions

http://climateaudit.org/2013/09/30/marotzkes-broken-promise/
http://climateaudit.org/2013/09/30/ipcc-disappears-the-discrepancy/
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/28/ipcc-diagnosis-permanent-paradigm-paralysis/
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/29/how-the-ipcc-forgot-to-mention-the-pause/
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/30/ipccs-pause-logic/
http://judithcurry.com/2013/10/01/ipcc-solar-variations-dont-matter/
http://judithcurry.com/2013/10/01/negotiating-the-ipcc-spm/
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/09/27/kelly-mcparland-the-uns-latest-climate-change-report-could-serve-to-close-the-door-on-windbaggery/
http://opinion.financialpost.com/2013/09/30/ipcc-climate-global-warming/
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/09/ipcc-we-dont-need-no-stinking-climate-sensitivity/
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/09/the-global-warming-they-fear-is-not-based-upon-physical-first-principles/
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.ca/2013/09/five-points-on-ipcc-report-wonky-long.html

From the last article:
"5. There is not a strong scientific basis for claiming a discernible effect of human-caused climate change on hurricanes, floods, tornadoes or drought."

What's left for CAGW?  Maybe only the AGW part, in part....