Regional vs Global battle

The global models have pretty much remained stable with the storm track and timing that I described in my previous post, except that the start of the snowfall is likely to happen during the day on Sunday.

The fly in the ointment are the regional models, which are higher resolution versions of their global counterparts.  Due to the higher resolution, an error will get more amplifed (compared to global models) the farther out from the base period.  As such, the regional models are just starting to get into the zone of reasonable accuracy with Monday's storm.  However, they are showing the storm going NE over Lake Erie into central Ontario, putting us well east of main snow and definitely in the warm sector.

Here is the latest snow map.  It's based on the Global models.